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A Bold Prediction for the 2013 Hurricane Season

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I am making a bold prediction for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season.  The first named storm of the year, Andrea, will hit the Houston-Galveston area.  How can I make such a prediction? Let us take a look back in history.

The era of modern tropical cyclone naming in the Atlantic basin began in 1979, when the six rotating list of alternating men's and women's names began. Nineteen Eighty-three marked the first use of list #5, which is the same list (which changes due to retired names) that will be used in 2013.  The first named storm of 1983 was Major Hurricane Alicia.  Alicia was the last category three or higher hurricane to hit the Houston/Galveston area as of mid August, 2011.

The name Alicia was retired, and replaced with Allison.

The year 1989 marked the second use of list #5, and the first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Allison, struck just a little down the coast from Freeport, TX (south of Houston and west of Galveston), and tracked across metropolitan Houston.


In 1995, Hurricane Allison was a" near" miss for the Houston-Galveston area, as the storm moved through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to make landfall in Florida, to kick of the current active period in the Atlantic basin.

The next use of list #5 was in 2001, when Tropical Storm Allison dumped as much as 30 inches of rain on parts of Houston, after having made landfall at Galveston and looping over east Texas for several days.


Allison of 2001 is thus far the only Atlantic Tropical Storm to have its name retired, and was replaced with Andrea.

The first incarnation of Andrea, in 2007, was a subtropical storm that grazed the coast of part of the SE US, and came nowhere close to Texas:

It is apparent, Houston-Galveston is due for a hit from the 'A' storm from list #5, and the next chance of that is 2013.

Obviously, the "prediction" is a bit tongue-in-cheek.  The fact that that particular entry in an arbitrary list has made landfall within about a 100 mile stretch of coast three times is, while interesting, is not useful in predicting what might happen in the future.  It certainly seems anomalous.  I am curious if the same has happened with any other particular entry on one of the lists.

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