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2010 Hurricane Season may have another storm up it's sleeve next week! Next big season is Tornado season 2011 and it could be a doozy.
I really think 2011 will have an early start to tornado season as La Nina is famous for this. I predict that conditions could be similar to that of 2008.
Thanks,
Jeff Mckown
Comments
With a La Nina, you will tend to get a more amplify jet stream pattern. This would mean a higher chance of seeing stronger shortwaves energy moving along the the upper jet. So I would think that the chances would be greater for an active severe weather season.
The problem is where? The area of where this activity will depend mainly on where the major upper level troughs and ridges will set up late this winter and the pattern the upper jet will take.
If we were to look back at past La Nina severe weather season patterns over North America, the trend has been to shift the area of what normally be the most active areas to the north and/or west. However. this is based on a limited amount of data.. Also, the variability of the type of upper level patterns that can form normally during a La Nina season is much greater than that of an El Nino season. Also note that there may be other factors that will have a stronger influence on the severe weather season.
According to a recent article (See link below for details), "U.S. scientists say La Niña-controlled weather patterns have the potential to produce more severe storms".
So I think we will see a higher chance of having above normal severe weather activities, but trying to determine where we will see the most active weather is just too early to tell.
Looking at the GFS on the front page of this site I see it spinning up a system underneath Cuba. How far out were you looking that you saw a storm heading toward Florida? We'll be in Texas from the 19th thru the 29th so hopefully we're not seeing a storm bearing down on our house during that time. UGH! I doubt it though since this season has been a non event in terms of US landfalls.
It looked as if it was going to head to FL but the trough moved in and pulled it ENE toward Cuba then stalled it and a high builds in and forces it into C.A.
If you guys go to the Xtreme Weather Cam, there is a chat room there in case you guys would rather chat instead of blog.
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
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Hey Jeff,
Are you seeing any long term forecasts for tornado season that supports this theory? Is there an established pattern for La Nina years setting up early? Hopefully not too much in the way of damage or lives lost...tornadoes are some nasty beasts!!