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93L finally starting to organize and possibly developing a surface low WSW of Jamaica!
93L remains disorganized, but in the last few frames of the visible, the circulation WSW of Jamaica has gotten well defined. I do believe that if this is forming a surface low, a TD will be declared by tomorrow. With the conditions it's in and headed into, I see no point in continued slow organization, this is my opinion though, I could be wrong. Here's a map I made concerning what is happening with this stubborn invest.
IF indeed this is a surface low forming, I expect it to take off pretty fast as some of the models are showing. The track? let's get the low formed first, then I'll show you my thoughts on the potential track. I will say that the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida will be at risk IF this doesn't die out in the Yucatan as the GFS suggest. Have a great day, God Bless!
Comments
I like it!
I like the Reed Zone! Cool title. What are you thinking about 93L today Allan?
Looks like the vorticity is a litter more defined but still disorganized. The models are still including FL panhandle. YEESH!
I had a feeling the models might shift more east as time went on. From a couple days ago, they've definitely done so. I think the big problem is right now it doesn't seem like they have a well defined low to initialize properly from. Is that a fair assessment?
I'm looking at our first Tropical Depression tomorrow 
. This is finally organizing. I'm getting more confident in a track to the northern GOM do to the trough being stronger then some think it is. 20-30 knots of wind shear in the southern GOM should keep 93L a depression or minimal TS until it pulls north of there, notice how warm the waters are on the coastline of LA to FL? This is unusual, they should be cooler and the warmer sea temps should be in the deeper waters. However, 93L moves north, becomes a strong TS, possibly a Hurricane as it makes landfall somewhere between LA and FL. That is my outlook, I'll have a map posted with a new blog sometime tomorrow. I'm believing if organization continues overnight, with a good DMAX, 93L becomes TD1, then recon finds TS Alex tomorrow afternoon. NOT written in stone, just my forecast for now.
Morning Allan,
93L holding its own and models shifting even further east than I thought they might. Do you think the more easterly models see a stronger trough, a stronger storm or a combination of both?
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
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Interesting stuff!
Great post Allan, things are certainly getting alot more interesting. The analysis sounds pretty accurate. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Hopefully it doesn't interfere with our vacation!