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95L Could Become The Season's First Tropical Depression
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Satellite imagery and surface observations both suggest that the circulation associated with 95L has become better defined over the past few hours, albeit that it still remains relatively broad. Atmospheric conditions currently aren't ideal for tropical cyclogenesis due to the presence of an upper-trough located to the northwest of the system which in turn is providing for about 20-30 knots of wind shear as well as subsidence to the northwest of the circulation. However, in about 24 hours global models suggest that this upper-trough advect towards the northeast which in turn should allow for ridging to move in from the eastern Caribbean over top 95L allowing for a much more favorable upper-level set-up.
The 18z GFS suggests that the main steering mechanism for 95L be the mid-level ridge currently initialized over northern Texas. 95L should continue to travel slowly towards the WNW as it moves under the influence of the southern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The ridge is forecast to amplify, however, how much it amplifies will be the main factor as to how far north or south this system makes landfall. Currently I'm leaning towards the ECMWF solution of a tropical storm making landfall slightly north of Tampico, Mexico. Currently I give 95L a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 72 hours.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of 95L valid as of 8:45p.m EDT.
MiamiHurricanes09
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Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
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