95L On The Verge Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone

95L On The Verge Of Becoming The Season's First Cyclone

Recent data from a reconnaissance aircraft that was investigating 95L earlier today suggests that the system has developed a closed surface circulation, albeit that it remains broad at this time. However, the reason that the system has yet to become a tropical cyclone is the lack of organized convective activity. At the moment, shower and thunderstorm activity is being hindered by the presence of an upper-level trough currently located over southern Alabama all the way into central northern Mexico. This trough is causing for dry air to intrude into the system western semicircle. Another detriment that this upper-level trough is having on the system is the fact that it is causing for 15-25 knots of northwesterly shear to impede upon 95L. Nevertheless, the upper-level trough is forecasted by the GFS to continue to retrograde westward, and be out of the picture within 18-24 hours. This will then allow for anticyclonic flow to develop aloft which would reduce upper-level winds, and thus allow for the system to organize and intensify.

As far as track, the high pressure system currently located over New Mexico is forecast to advect eastward over northern Texas. This high pressure system will be the main ingredient in steering 95L. Currently global models foresee that 95L remain on a west-northwestward track for the next 12-24 hours before high pressure builds in north of it. After the aforementioned time-frame, steering is forecast to become more zonal and thus force the system on a more westerly course. Just like yesterday I'm in great agreement with the ECMWF's solution of intensifying the system into a moderate tropical storm and bringing it just north of Tampico, Mexico in about 48 hours. Although the ECMWF does ramp up this system into a moderate tropical storm, I could very well see it becoming a strong tropical storm should upper-level conditions be favorable for by intensification tomorrow morning.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 95L valid as of 5:15p.m EDT.

A Look Ahead

Since the Bay of Campeche is currently a hot bed for tropical development due to the presence of the monsoonal circulation, the 12z GFS foresees that a second system right after 95L develop in about the same spot that 95L currently is in about 60 hours or so. The GFS basically keeps the system there and really doesn't do much with it. Dissipates in about 102 hours over inland Mexico.

The NOGAPS forecasts for a trough split to occur over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 72 hours. The system remains weak and moves inland over the Florida panhandle in about 108 hours.

The CMC has 2 trough splits occurring on the 12z run right off the eastern seaboard. Both get picked up by the same trough they split off of a few hours later.

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