A Tropical Brief

The Atlantic tropics are in respite at the moment, with the N.H.C.  having no areas of interest shaded. Computer models are showing potential areas of interest for next week, with perhaps our first Cape Verde system, and, a possible resurgence of T.D. 5. I'm not one for running wild with possible scenario's that are 5 or more days out, so I will not even attempt a forecast for either possibility. I instead will use today's post just to take a little look at the tropics as they currently are.

SST's

Basin wide, SST's are hot, and the depth to which these warm waters reach is becoming very disconcerting.  I'm especially concerned with the areas around Cuba and Jamaica, as TCHP and the 26c Isotherm both show a veritable powder keg of energy for anything tropical that crosses this area. The potential for rapid intensification in this area is very real, and should a system move over those waters, we could see something very powerful come about. The Gulf of Mexico is another area of concern, as while TCHP and 26c iso may not be as pronounced here as around Cuba, these waters would enable any system to either maintain current strength or even strengthen depending on other variables. 

Wind Shear

Wind shear is currently running anywhere from 5- 20 knots basin wide, with a few localized areas higher yet. A pressure gradient between a high over the S.E. CONUS and a ULL  near Cuba is creating prohibitive shear from the northern Bahamas to the central GOM. Anti-cyclonic flow can be found off the coast of South America, however anything finding a way under it would be a short lived event, as current steering would quickly move a deepening system into Central America most likely. Generically speaking, its hit and miss on favorable to prohibitive shear. 

Water Vapor

Areas around the S.W. Caribbean are currently very moist, while the Central Atlantic is very dry. As this changes drastically day to day, there's not really that  much I'll say about it. Yet again, another hit and miss variable under constant change.

SAL

Currently SAL is on the uptick again, the culprit? Deepening high pressure. That is why I've posted the surface chart here as well, to explain the cause. During June and July, the high near the African coast was running around 1032 mb. This led to high levels of SAL running all across the Atlantic, especially north of roughly 20 north. Then we went into a period of a weaker high pressure, and as early as just a few days ago I observed the high at 1022 mb. At that time SAL was nearly obsolete basin wide. Now, however, the high near Africa is back to the 1027/1028 mb area. Stronger high pressure creates higher winds running over the Saharan Desert, and weaker highs less, leading to the up-turns and down-turns in SAL. The positioning of this high also contributes, as closer to the coast  allows more dust to be picked up over a larger area, and farther off the coast less. Again, another variable that waxes and wanes day to day.

Season outlook from here on out

Though this season has as yet to be as severe as forecast, I really doubt we are out of the woods yet. We are just now getting into the meat of the season, and with so many variables still showing potential of a active season, I still believe we will finish this season above average in terms of number of storms. In Ossgss's wunderground prediction blog, I went on record for 18-11-6, Storms/ hurricanes/ majors. My thinking is now, unless we are to go very late into the season still active, these numbers are slightly too high. I could see us winding up with 10 or so more named systems, and still see the potential of several majors. I will now revise my numbers to the tune of a season total of 15 named systems, 8 hurricanes, and 4 majors. Simply put, I believe there is way too much heat out there for us not to get some intense systems, especially as we move into September, which is historically the month of most major development. Whether the bulk of these hit land or not, I won't hazard a guess. Steering has been very tricky this season, as at times a Atlantic graveyard has been open, and at others solid steering west. Which is there at times of development is anyone's guess, and I'd assume we will likely see a bit of both.  Well, I believe this blog is long enough, so I will end it here. Take care all and stay vigilante.

Nocaneindy