There is no doubt in my mind we had a Depression yesterday and this morning. The depression has strengthened to a Tropical Storm with winds of 40-45 mph. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now and are finding winds of 50 mph. The NHC should classify this Tropical Storm Paula at 2 p.m. The track may be important to those who live in the Yucatan, Cuba, South Florida, Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda in the later future.  Tropical Storm Paula   Conditions are hostile north of Paula, but...

Subtropical Depression 17 looks like a Subtropical Storm. I'm sure recon will find winds greater then 39 mh to classify this a Subtropical Cyclone. It's purely warm core, but the ULL being stacked on it makes it hard for the convection/winds to get near the center, thus calling it Subtropical. This formed from a Tropical Wave, so the storm is, in reality, warm core. STD 17 (Otto) should start making a straight bee line towards the Azores in the next few days. Now, for all you people th...

Tropical Storm Nicole (which finally formed this morning) continues to move west of the models and NHC for now. The NNE movement makes much more sense based on the latest steering layers map shown below. Nicole isn't really THAT disorganized to me, got good structure, convection. The only thing, and it's a big thing that Nicole lacks is a well defined circulation. What's interesting is that I see a circulation, small little vortex around the Keys.. Interesting,  My second and last run on...

While Nicole may not be Tropical for too long after exiting the Caribbean, she should continue to strengthen. There's some indications that the wind shear values may not be as high due to the front stalling and drifting north. Most will call this a Tropical Depression, but due to this... AL162010092818BEST0212N829W351000TS We will have Nicole by 5 p.m. today! This is pretty much what I figured would happen. Nicole is organizing, but very slow due to shear to it's northwest. This should...

Tropical Storm Matthew  is moving towards the west at a good clip. The storm continues to become better organized. I see no reason for this not to be a Hurricane by Saturday. The NHC doesn’t forecast it, but does have Hurricane Watches to be on the safe side. I feel the NHC actually has a good handle of the storm. As a low cuts off form the jet stream in a few days, this should more then be enough to take whatever Matthew is in a few days, up and into Florida. Folks on the Peninsula n...

Small update on 95L here.. I don’t really have a detailed forecast, heck there is no center yet. I think the models will lock on when “Matthew” forms. I have a good feeling this will effect Florida either as a remnant low, or a Hurricane. If it stays in Central America, the moisture is likely to lift north, maybe redevelop, or not. However, the GFS and EURO show the storm staying away from CA and catching the trough, heading towards Florida. It’s a complex situation.. Oh ...

I apologize for not blogging much lately, been working alot lately and tired to really type something afterwords :)   Igor remains moving NW to WNW and should turn more WNW again as the second trough misses, yes MISSES the storm and the high builds to the north. However, The 3rd trough and polar vortex moving out of Canada should be enough to actually recurve Igor WEST of Bermuda. 18Z runs finally showing this scenario. I believe tonight will be the last time Igor tries to make Category 5 s...

Igor While some may say Igors sudden stall, stationary movement and decrease in strength is a "good thing", you gotta look at the factors that are being played out. Ok, so if Igor moved as forecast, I believed that he probably would have cached the trough that is moving east, away from the USA in time. Though, Igor has defied the models and stalled. This changes the whole ball game. So you might call me crazy, a wishcaster, but it is what it is. The models have shifted further south an...

If you live anywhere from North Carolina to Maine, and Canada, you need to CLOSELY monitor Hurricane Earl. I mentioned a few days ago, maybe on here or was it on Wunderground?? Anyways, I mentioned that Earl should come close to the USA or make a direct impact when models had it recurving around Bermuda. It's a pattern people, Danielle recurves east, Earl recurves further west, 97L.. possibly a serious problem, still far out to really get excited about. Earl is a monster category ...

Hurricane Danielle continues to move to the WNW, moving a tad more north now, I really expected this yesterday but oh well. There is still a very likely chance this recurves out to sea, maybe effecting Bermuda at the most. Though some of the latest model runs of the GFDL, HWRF, and NOGAPS continue to show the storm passing far enough to the west to miss the trough and get caught under a large banana ridge. This scenario which was under 10% is now 20% in my forecast.  Hurricane Dan...

Hurricane Danielle   Hurricane Danielle has weakened this morning because of some dry air and it's forward speed remains at 20 mph. The storm has been moving more westward over the past few days, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 12-24 hours. I do feel it will move WNW, but a NW motion shouldn't occur until tomorrow, after it reaches 55W in my opinion. This is a complicated pattern that Danielle will be pushing into. Some would say that we are crazy to believe that the patt...

*The NHC fails yet again and did not classify 05L as a Tropical Depression at 5 p.m. when their own vortex message clearly showed there was a LLC, winds of 30 mph., and there is convection southwest of the exposed low. I have seen many storms worse then this get upgraded. The NHC may have alot of explaining to do by the end of the season if they keep this up.* It's obvious that we have another unnamed Tropical Depression in the GOM, though I think with recon out there, we should get a classifica...

While I agree that Tropical Depression 5 looked very disorganized earlier today, I checked the latest few frames and now noticing something here... 1. The swirl (COC) is better defined 2. The elongated convective mess that was shaped like a rubber band is now starting to wrap up around the COC as the ULL moves further to the west. 3. Convection is organizing, broadly around the system with more banding now starting to appear on the southwestern side. This shows me that Tropical Depression 5 is o...

94L Lets start with the potentially dangerous situation that may uncover in the Gulf the next few days. After seeing rapid organization from a cold core invest to a near Tropical Depression strength system, I see no reason for the NHC to keep it an invest at 5 p.m., especially when recon should find a closed circulation with winds around 30-35 mph.  94L should become our 5th or 6th (depending on if the unclassified TD actually gets recognized from what it truly is.) Trop...

Wait.. What happened to 93L you ask? After two days of a consistent LLC, very little convection, but great structure, I firmly believe the NHC is ignoring our 5th Tropical Depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Yes, it's far out to sea, but looking at the loop of it's progress, you can see DMAX did blow up some nice convection earlier, dry air is really hammering the unclassified TD. In fact, if dry air wasn't a big issue, we would be tracking a Tropical Storm. If the system...

So Colin decided to go with the models and head to Bermuda, which now doesn't surprise me because the steering took a erratic northward turn as a strong trough plowed inot the Atlantic. To give you some hint on how strong this trough was, severe thunderstorms are expected in the southeast today, not pop up, but actual frontal storms. It's unusual to see that in August. Plus, we had some outbreak yesterday, here are the reports, again from the same trough recurving Colin... May get some bad wi...

  Tropical Storm Colin formed from Tropical Depression 4 this morning in the Atlantic. While models still point towards an out to sea scenario, I'm still not convinced. Why you ask? Look where the TUTT is on the forecast. I've never seen storms bust through TUTTs. It is located just east of where the NHC forecasts Colin to turn north. I believe the TUTT may shear it into an open wave for a few days, with the shearing comes erratic movements. I've seen this with many invests and st...

The 4th Tropical Depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic, west of 40W which does not make it a classic Cape Verde Storm. TD4 will have some problems strengthening due to dry air and high wind shear in its path  caused by the TUTT near Bermuda. The TUTT stretches out a nice band of wind shear extending from north of the system to Western Caribbean. This should keep a damper on development to a Hurricane, though freaky things have happened and I'm not ruling out a minimal Hurrican...

So here's what we have concerning the blob in the ITCZ and the TW coming off of Africa...GFS - merges and moves it WNW towards South FL, then turns it north up the coastline to the Carolinas (Ernesto like track).EURO - merges both the areas and moves it WNW, a bit NW in the end just north of the islands, then veers it westward on the last two frames towards FL.CMC/GEM - develop a powerful storm, moves it in the general direction of Floyd (1999) and Isabel (2003), towards either the Mid-Atlantic ...

A very strong tropical wave that just emerged off of Africa is already showing signs of development today as convection persists and deepens.  The conservative EURO deepens the storm into a Hurricane by the time it reaches PR (in it's path). When the EURO develops a storm, this is when I pay close attention. The EURO is not alone however, the GEM, NOGAPS, and CMC develops the storm as well. This is showing me consistency and confidence that we will have Colin by either the end of July or th...