| Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership... |
You are not logged in.
- Error
Central Atlantic Heating Up
- Hits: 682
- 3 Comments
- Subscribe to updates
- Bookmark
Good evening folks! It appears that I'm returning to some action trying to develop in the Central Atlantic. Over the past week, the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) has been building up heat and moisture and it seems that it may be gradually leading to some tropical development in the coming days.
On Wednesday, a large tropical wave emerged off Africa while a disturbance pretty much stalled out over the ITCZ. It now appears that the tropical wave and disturbance have come together and are interacting this evening as showers and thunderstorms have really blossomed in the region and some low to mid level rotation has been getting more evident at about 8.5N and 35.5W. You can see this clearly in the visible satellite loop this evening.
From the 8PM outlook from the NHC, they have assessed the whole disturbance with a medium chance for development (40%) into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Right now, I would place the chances even higher at around 50 to 60% since the disturbance continues to exhibit improving organization with a low level circulation becoming more defined and showers and thunderstorms continue to not only maintain themselves, but build even further. About the only impediment on the disturbance is the fact the disturbance remains within the ITCZ and needs to move further north to take advantage of the Coriollis Effect, or the Earth's natural effect to allow systems to gain better circulation as they go further north. Dry air and Saharan dust remain well to the north and wind shear remains rather low between 5 and 15 knots across the board.
Now most people looking at the computer models may be getting concerned right now. But given that we don't have a defined system and that the system remains in the ITCZ, the computer models shouldn't be considered strongly since all computer models have had difficulty handling developing systems in the ITCZ and track for such systems. Nonetheless, given the latest trends and computer model data for steering patterns and upper level winds, we could very well see a tropical depression or storm coming from this disturbed weather in the ITCZ in the next few days. So just keep watching and stay tuned for further updates.
Comments
We'll see what and when it'll be by then. We may see our first legit threat from Colin...a dangerous Cape Verde storm?
TD4 is looking VERY impressive. I think we may see TS Colin named today or tonight...now whether the current models are accurate is another issue. I think a better initialization will happen once we get a more well defined TC.
I am ready for East Coast US deployment (Carolinas perhaps?)
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.-
Written on May 02 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 20 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 19 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 18 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 16 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on recordApril 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global...
-
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: a book reviewNo climate scientist has been subject to more attacks on their science and character than Penn State's Michael Mann, originator of the famed "hockey stick" graph of Earth's temperature history. Dr. Mann has an excellent new book called "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines" that takes the reader on a fascinating journey to the front lines the high-stakes battles between climate scientists and their...
I'll be working all day to prepare to leave next weekend to intercept this one!