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Do NOT let the "cool" weather in the country fool you, Hurricane Season is NOT over yet and the USA is still at risk, not even a low chance.
Subtropical Depression 17 looks like a Subtropical Storm. I'm sure recon will find winds greater then 39 mh to classify this a Subtropical Cyclone. It's purely warm core, but the ULL being stacked on it makes it hard for the convection/winds to get near the center, thus calling it Subtropical. This formed from a Tropical Wave, so the storm is, in reality, warm core. STD 17 (Otto) should start making a straight bee line towards the Azores in the next few days.
Now, for all you people that think Hurricane Season is over, think again..
We are heading towards our 15th named system today! My forecast from May was 15-18 storms, 9-10 Hurricanes, 5 majors.
With those warm Caribbean waters, and cold core transitions that may take place in the open Atlantic, I’m looking for 2 more Hurricanes. Possibly one last Major Hurricane which will be in the Caribbean if it happens, where all the heats at. Overall I believe we have 4 more storms to go until it’s all over. This is including out of season activity in December, if we get any. I still feel the Southeastern USA (particularly Florida) is still at HIGH RISK for a landfalling Tropical Cyclone, whether it be Major Hurricane, Hurricane or a Tropical Storm or Depression. Hurricane Season is not over yet. Look at the last hurrahs of the Caribbean in most seasons. Mitch (1998), Wilma (2005), Keith (2000), Michelle (2001), Ida (2009), Paloma (2008), ect.
I think it’s reasonable to say, with those warm temps of the Caribbean Sea that we have one more major Hurricane to go!
Now what would be the intensity IF a strong storm does find a weakness and moves north into the GOM?
Look at Wilma, she actually strengthened before landfall in South FL. Though if a storm were to head north of Tampa, the cool waters would weaken it some, not totally. Ida weakened mainly because of wind shear, not really the cool waters in the Northern Gulf. It became Extratropical as it merged with a Hybrid low coming from the BOC. If shear wasn’t an issue, Ida would have become a Major Hurricane and then make landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. Also, if a strong storm in the Caribbean moves quickly, weakening would be slow to occur because the storm would not have enough time to sit under those cool temps.
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Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
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