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Georgia hurricane history: An Introduction
Posted by
Stsimonsislandgaguy
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Friday, September 16 2011
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Major hurricanes have avoided Georgia for a long time. None have made landfall since October 2, 1898, beyond all living memory. A belief has grown among many of the natives that major hurricanes will always be steered away from the coast here--either by God, the course of the Gulf Stream, or the indentation of the coastline here. A review of recent near misses has lent credence to this belief. In 1989, hurricane Hugo was forecast by several models, and briefly on the official track to make landfall on the upper Georgia coast. In 1992, Andrew 5 days out was forecast to make a landfall on the coast between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, with some models bringing him up to the Georgia coast. The next year, Hurricane Emily was forecast to head west into the Georgia coast 5 days out as a 110 knot/950mb hurricane--the ridge that was forecast to hold it south was eroded by a short wave and the hurricane was steered to just offshore Hatteras. Then in 1996, Hurricane Bertha was forecast to directy hit the Georgia coast as a Cat 2/3 hurricane just 2 days out--she too went to North Carolina instead. Then in 1999, Hurricane Floyd was forecast to make a landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane on the Georgia coast 2 1/2 days out, heading northwards and nearly paralleling the coast, giving major hurricane winds to the entire coast. North Carolina again. In 2004, hurricane Frances was forecast to hit Georgia directly as a Cat 4 hurricane 4 days out, and 3 weeks later, Jeanne was forecast for a while to hit the north Florida coast, with some models bringing her to Georgia as a Cat 3. Instead, they hit southeastern Florida. These forcasted landfalls, which were revised away in the nick of time, have generated a great deal of skepticism about any major hurricane making landfall here. It is very likely that when a major hurricane comes to call on the Georgia coast, many people will believe the hurricane will turn away, as all the others have done. This complacency is very dangerous.
The local chambers of commerce proclaim proudly that a major hurricane has not hit in over a century. Advertisements for the new condo and golf developments being built do not claim that the Georgia coast is immune from hurricanes, but just barely. Accurate, but misleading. Looking at the past century, there is a large 'hole' in major hurricane landfalls from Savannah to Cape Canaveral. But what do we find when we look at the 1800s?
During the 1800s many major hurricanes made landfall directly on the Georgia coast. Amazingly, more major hurricanes made landfall here than in South Carolina, and almost as many as in North Carolina. Interestingly, the southern half of the 'hole' in major hurricane landfalls still holds after 1850--major hurricane landfalls on the northern half of the Florida east coast are still very rare.
Before 1850, some hurricanes and a couple of major hurricanes did make landfall on the northeast Florida coast. It almost seems as if the paths of hurricanes was diverted to the south and west, with hurricanes tending to track 2 or 3 degrees south and west of their Carolina tracks of the 1900s. I will be doing a series of blog entries giving a short history of each major hurricane landfall in Georgia during the 1800s, with some other notable storms included.
First, some notes on Georgia coastal geography and settlement patterns.
The indentation of the Georgia coast, which has helped shield us from major hurricane impacts during the 20th century protects the Georgia coast in two ways. Based on the period since 1898, hurricanes have not 'aimed' at the Georgia coast, but seemed to stay south towards Florida or head up into the Carolinas, which jut out.
The indentation, also known as the Georgia Bight, has another more subtle protection for our coastline. It serves to focus the tides, and the average tidal range on the Georgia coast, between 7 and 9 feet, is larger than anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico or the east coast south of Long Island sound. During spring tides, the range is 10 to 11 feet. At first glance, a high tidal range can seem to be a negative for coastal safety. But is it really?
When we speak of a coastal community or neighborhood being 5 feet or 8 feet or 15 feet above sea level, what do we mean? We mean the height above the high tide line, not the average height of the sea. Tidal ranges in the Outer Banks, south Florida or the Gulf of Mexico are 3 feet or less. This means that no matter what the tide is, it really does not make that much difference. If a hurricane makes landfall in New Orleans or Miami at low tide, it will at most take away 2 or 3 feet away from the surge--helpful but not really a big deal. But if a hurricane hits at low tide in Georgia, it will take away 7 or 8 or 9 feet away from the surge, which really cuts it down. Even when a hurricane makes landfall at mid tide, it still cuts 3 or 4 feet from the surge, which can help. The best example of a hurricane surge being cut back was the 1804 hurricane, the first I will discuss, during which the hurricane eye made a direct landfall on St. Simons Island directly at low spring tide. This cut the surge back from 16-17 feet above the high tide line to 7 feet above the high tide line. This saved the lives of hundreds of slaves working the rice fields on the Altamaha delta plantations. The hurricane winds still did tremendous damage, and the high tide was still destructive. But the surge was not catastrophic, as it would have been at high tide.
Another factor reducing the exposure of the Georgia coast to catastrophic damage is the settlement pattern. Even today, the vast majority of the barrier islands are protected as national or state parks, and are uninhabited, or nearly so. From south to north:
Cumberland Island, national seashore. About 30 inhabitants and some rangers.
Jekyll Island--state owned park, with about 700 residents on long term leases.
St. Simons/Sea Island--an exception. 16,000 residents, swelling to 30-50 thousand during the summer vacation season. Brunswick GA, on the mainland is technically an island surrounded by marsh creeks, and has 16,000 inhabitants also. It is very vulnerable to tidal surges.
Sapelo Island--state owned park. About 60 old time black residents at Hog Hammock, and some state rangers and maritime researchers.
St. Catherines Island--state owned park, uninhabited except for some archaeologists, with the occasional ranger patrol
Ossobaw Island and Wassaw island--the same.
Near Savannah, the coastal islands become more settled. Tybee island juts out and has about 3,000 inhabitants. Behind the oceanic island chain, two large islands surrounded by marsh south and east of Savannah are not directly exposed to the ocean, but are vulnerable to tidal surges. Skidaway Island has about 8,000 inhabitants, and Wilmington Island has about 15,000 inhabitants.
Savannah itself is not vulnerable to tidal surges. Savannah has the reputation of being a coastal city, but in reality it is not, being 20 miles northwest of Tybee Island. The Savannah river is tidal at Savannah, but the city is built on a high bluff and coastal plateau 30-50 feet above sea level. When you drive or walk down to River Street, you can see the bluff.
A good illustration of the old town of Savannah is this plan from 1733 as it was being laid out. You can see the river bluff very well, and how it is taller than some of the sailboats in the river. Savannah founding plan:
In short, only about 60,000 people live on the entire Georgia coast in areas vulnerable to surge. So even if a Cat 5 hurricane comes to call, the sort of mass destruction that happened in New Orleans with Katrina or could happen in places such as southeastern Florida, or Tampa, or Long Island, simply cannot happen. There is not that much to destroy.
I will be posting entries from time to time this fall describing the major hurricanes that made landfall in Georgia. Hope people find this series interesting!
The local chambers of commerce proclaim proudly that a major hurricane has not hit in over a century. Advertisements for the new condo and golf developments being built do not claim that the Georgia coast is immune from hurricanes, but just barely. Accurate, but misleading. Looking at the past century, there is a large 'hole' in major hurricane landfalls from Savannah to Cape Canaveral. But what do we find when we look at the 1800s?
During the 1800s many major hurricanes made landfall directly on the Georgia coast. Amazingly, more major hurricanes made landfall here than in South Carolina, and almost as many as in North Carolina. Interestingly, the southern half of the 'hole' in major hurricane landfalls still holds after 1850--major hurricane landfalls on the northern half of the Florida east coast are still very rare.
Before 1850, some hurricanes and a couple of major hurricanes did make landfall on the northeast Florida coast. It almost seems as if the paths of hurricanes was diverted to the south and west, with hurricanes tending to track 2 or 3 degrees south and west of their Carolina tracks of the 1900s. I will be doing a series of blog entries giving a short history of each major hurricane landfall in Georgia during the 1800s, with some other notable storms included.
First, some notes on Georgia coastal geography and settlement patterns.
The indentation of the Georgia coast, which has helped shield us from major hurricane impacts during the 20th century protects the Georgia coast in two ways. Based on the period since 1898, hurricanes have not 'aimed' at the Georgia coast, but seemed to stay south towards Florida or head up into the Carolinas, which jut out.
The indentation, also known as the Georgia Bight, has another more subtle protection for our coastline. It serves to focus the tides, and the average tidal range on the Georgia coast, between 7 and 9 feet, is larger than anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico or the east coast south of Long Island sound. During spring tides, the range is 10 to 11 feet. At first glance, a high tidal range can seem to be a negative for coastal safety. But is it really?
When we speak of a coastal community or neighborhood being 5 feet or 8 feet or 15 feet above sea level, what do we mean? We mean the height above the high tide line, not the average height of the sea. Tidal ranges in the Outer Banks, south Florida or the Gulf of Mexico are 3 feet or less. This means that no matter what the tide is, it really does not make that much difference. If a hurricane makes landfall in New Orleans or Miami at low tide, it will at most take away 2 or 3 feet away from the surge--helpful but not really a big deal. But if a hurricane hits at low tide in Georgia, it will take away 7 or 8 or 9 feet away from the surge, which really cuts it down. Even when a hurricane makes landfall at mid tide, it still cuts 3 or 4 feet from the surge, which can help. The best example of a hurricane surge being cut back was the 1804 hurricane, the first I will discuss, during which the hurricane eye made a direct landfall on St. Simons Island directly at low spring tide. This cut the surge back from 16-17 feet above the high tide line to 7 feet above the high tide line. This saved the lives of hundreds of slaves working the rice fields on the Altamaha delta plantations. The hurricane winds still did tremendous damage, and the high tide was still destructive. But the surge was not catastrophic, as it would have been at high tide.
Another factor reducing the exposure of the Georgia coast to catastrophic damage is the settlement pattern. Even today, the vast majority of the barrier islands are protected as national or state parks, and are uninhabited, or nearly so. From south to north:
Cumberland Island, national seashore. About 30 inhabitants and some rangers.
Jekyll Island--state owned park, with about 700 residents on long term leases.
St. Simons/Sea Island--an exception. 16,000 residents, swelling to 30-50 thousand during the summer vacation season. Brunswick GA, on the mainland is technically an island surrounded by marsh creeks, and has 16,000 inhabitants also. It is very vulnerable to tidal surges.
Sapelo Island--state owned park. About 60 old time black residents at Hog Hammock, and some state rangers and maritime researchers.
St. Catherines Island--state owned park, uninhabited except for some archaeologists, with the occasional ranger patrol
Ossobaw Island and Wassaw island--the same.
Near Savannah, the coastal islands become more settled. Tybee island juts out and has about 3,000 inhabitants. Behind the oceanic island chain, two large islands surrounded by marsh south and east of Savannah are not directly exposed to the ocean, but are vulnerable to tidal surges. Skidaway Island has about 8,000 inhabitants, and Wilmington Island has about 15,000 inhabitants.
Savannah itself is not vulnerable to tidal surges. Savannah has the reputation of being a coastal city, but in reality it is not, being 20 miles northwest of Tybee Island. The Savannah river is tidal at Savannah, but the city is built on a high bluff and coastal plateau 30-50 feet above sea level. When you drive or walk down to River Street, you can see the bluff.
A good illustration of the old town of Savannah is this plan from 1733 as it was being laid out. You can see the river bluff very well, and how it is taller than some of the sailboats in the river. Savannah founding plan:
In short, only about 60,000 people live on the entire Georgia coast in areas vulnerable to surge. So even if a Cat 5 hurricane comes to call, the sort of mass destruction that happened in New Orleans with Katrina or could happen in places such as southeastern Florida, or Tampa, or Long Island, simply cannot happen. There is not that much to destroy.
I will be posting entries from time to time this fall describing the major hurricanes that made landfall in Georgia. Hope people find this series interesting!
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