| Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership... |
You are not logged in.
Naptime over for the Atlantic Ocean! The tropics come alive, starting with 93L.
93L has been tagged on a wave west of the Lesser Antilles. The wave is currently under 10-15 knots of wind shear and is expected to drop down to 5-10 knots tomorrow. Here's my short term outlook on the invest, this is going by the pattern, I am taking a southern route then what most models are showing. Most models show 93L striking Jamaica, I feel it will stay in the favorable conditions as long as it can before turning north into the Gulf.
I have mentioned this in the wunderground blog and I will mention it here. This is based on the high, above average water temps in the Gulf of Mexico. If anything enters the Gulf (93L) and wind shear remains low up there, EXPECT a Hurricane with those high sea temps and TCHP. Don't look all surprised if we see Hurricane or even maybe Major Hurricane Alex. I like the call the NHC is making with this. It will take a few days for all the energy to come together, but I feel it is highly likely we will see our first named storm around Wednesday afternoon. Again, this is not hype, this is all based on the pattern and maps. The pattern is shaping up more and more like 2004 where the High pressure is over the Azores, spreading out westward preventing recurvatures of any Cape Verde Storms. The GFS has been consistent on developing our first Cape Verde Storm (Bonnie?) over 300 hours. While it's a long run, it's likely some sort of storm will form, so it's worth watching. So that's all I have for tonight, maybe an update tomorrow if things get even more interesting in the tropics. I have no forecast track or intensity with 93L UNTIL it develops a closed low, which could happen as early as tomorrow. Have a great night and God Bless!
*6/22/2010
93L has not organized much, except that a broad low has formed. Tracks are still very uncertain, my opinions have not changed much from yesterday, a TD is possible over the next few days, probably more likely Thursday - Friday.
Comments
Not sure, there has been a nice vorticity in back of 93L that is getting closer to merging with the invest. Another wave getting near the Islands may interact with 93L. I see development Thursday into Friday, as late as Saturday as all the elements, disturbances come together.
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.-
Written on May 02 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 20 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 19 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 18 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 16 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for MexicoTropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough...
-
Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South CarolinaTropical Storm Alberto continues to move slowly to the west-southwest off the coast of South Carolina, and is bringing light rains to the coasts northern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Recent radar and satellite loops show that Alberto has weakened late this morning, and has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. Upper level winds out of the west-southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over...
93L etc.
Hey Allan,
NICE forecast and graphics. The blobs lining up under Hispaniola look a little ominous. Is that just 93L outflow or are there spinoff waves that may soon be circled by the NHC?