Nate unlikely to get very strong; Maria likely to miss the U.S.; More trouble coming

Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

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Tropical Storm Nate continues to spin away in the Bay of Campeche, moving painfully slowly northeastward. The storm looks very dry, with a low-level cloud deck showing up everywhere but the southwest quadrant of the system, which is the only quadrant that has deep convection in it. I never bought the NHC idea that the extremely dry air northwest of Nate was not affecting him, and I think it is getting entrained directly into his circulation. This should keep Nate weak for much of his life, as this dry mid-level flow off of Texas into the gulf is forecasted to remain in place for the next few days without letting up. Wind shear will also be on the increase as Nate gains latitude, due to ex-Lee's old upper trough over the southern United States.

Yesterday I became more uncertain about Nate's track due to most of the models shifting away from my track to the northern gulf coast. I don't like being a "50/50 guy," and although there are times when we need to wait and see, having an already named storm in the Gulf of Mexico is an unacceptable time not to have a solid forecast. In the video today I give 3 good reasons why Nate should still move into the north gulf coast instead of into Mexico. This is not to discount a Mexico track entirely, and folks there should definitely keep an eye on Nate, but I find it the least likely of our two main options. A track in the general direction of the Mississippi River makes sense here, into the same general areas that were hit by Lee, though perhaps slightly farther east. Nate shouldn't strengthen a whole lot, and I'm not yet sold on the NHC forecast for Nate to become a hurricane. At this time I don't see him being able to become any stronger than a moderate tropical storm in the face of the extremely dry air and moderate wind shear that he will be dealing with.

Tropical Storm Maria has an exposed center this morning, as wind shear has increased from the light values that were in place yesterday. An upper low northwest of Maria is contributing a little bit to the shear, but most of it is being caused by strong surface trade winds which were in place north of Maria yesterday, and as her center moved into the faster stream, it yanked her surface center out from under the rest of her circulation. This is the kind of shear that results from strong surface winds, as opposed to strong upper-level winds. This, along with some dry air, should keep Maria a tropical storm as she moves through the lesser Antilles and the Puerto Rico area, and a hurricane seems unlikely. Folks there should be preparing for a tropical storm. Later, Maria will likely become a hurricane as she moves just northeast of the Bahamas, and for that reason, the Bahamas should keep an eye on Maria as well. I still feel that Maria will recurve east of the United States due to a strong upper trough over the eastern seaboard next week. It is too soon to stop watching Maria here in the U.S. though, and she shouldn't be ignored.

Looking ahead....I still think the period of September 15th to 25th should see a storm somewhere in the NW Caribbean, southern Gulf of Mexico, or Bahamas area, for reasons discussed in earlier posts. Some ensembles are starting to show hints of this idea in 10-15 days, and I think we will see some long-range models start to latch on. I'm putting myself out on a limb with a 2+ week forecast, but the pattern supports activity in this area, and such activity could easily threaten the Caribbean islands, Bahamas, central America, or the gulf coast down the road.

We shall see what happens!

NHC Official Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate:



NHC Official Forecast for Tropical Storm Maria:



Tropical Storm Nate Model Track Forecasts:



Tropical Storm Maria Model Track Forecasts:



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):