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Tropical Disturbance in the Western Caribbean Poses a Slight Threat to Develop
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A tropical wave that continues to interact with the monsoonal trough in the western Caribbean has become slightly better organized on satellite imagery this afternoon. A banding feature is evident on satellite imagery which is likely being enhanced by trade winds flowing in from the east-southeast converging with the flow of the monsoonal trough that flows in from the west-southwest. Something worth noting is that the CIMSS 850mb vorticity product suggests that the vorticity maximum associated with our disturbance is actually very near the coast of central Honduras, around 15?N 87?W. This is interesting considering that most of the convective activity is located to the east of the vorticity maximum. Upper-level winds appear to be generally favorable with the development of an upper-level ridge underway as the release of latent heat from the thunderstorm activity associated with our disturbance moves into the upper-levels. Subsidence also does not appear to be a factor as strong upward motion located over the Caribbean is providing for a relatively moist environment.
There are some negative factors going against the development of this feature however. One being interaction with land and the second being competition for dominance with a separate area of thunderstorm activity in the eastern Pacific. In the meantime, it appears that interaction with central America and Mexico will play the largest role as to what intensity, if it even develops, this disturbance will attain. Lower-level steering at the moment suggests that out disturbance move towards the west-northwest as it currently is. The system is then expected to turn towards the west. When this turn towards the west occurs is dependent on where and how intense ridging over the southeast United States develops. Stronger ridging would result in a more southerly track, possibly not even allowing the system to enter the Bay of Campeche, and obviously a weaker ridge would result in a more northerly path, possibly into central Mexico. I currently give this system a 20% chance of developing overall.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of our disturbance valid as of 18:16 UTC (2:15p.m EDT).
MiamiHurricanes09
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