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Tropical disturbance still has a shot at development in the Bay of Campeche

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If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video. Please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in the video, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer.

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The area of disturbed weather we have been monitoring for a few days now has moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A broad area of cyclonic circulation is evident, centered near the southeastern coast of the Bay of Campeche (upon looking up the pronunciation after the video, I have been correct all along in saying "Kam-pay-chay" lol). The system is rather disorganized at the moment, owing to the fact that it is over land, and also due to upper-level winds being unfavorable at the moment. A sharp upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing dry air towards the system from the northwest, and is imposing up to 30 knots of wind shear over the system out of the southwest. This will change during the next 48 hours as the trough over the Gulf of Mexico splits, leaving a piece to back WSW away from the Bay of Campeche. This will end up ventilating the area, allowing an upper ridge to balloon over the area of low pressure that will then be over the water. With an upper-level low over the central Caribbean helping to ventilate the area as well, conditions aloft will be conducive for tropical development. Given that the models show the low having at least a couple days to cross the Bay of Campeche, it will have a decent shot at trying to become tropical depression #1, though that cannot be guaranteed. Only the ECMWF truly develops it at this point.

Regarding track, my ideas have not changed at all over the past several days. I remain confident that the models had shifted too far south a couple of days ago, and will eventually be forced to shift northward as the ECMWF has in the last 3 runs. Landfall should be near the Tampico area on the central Mexican coastline. My landfall window right now looks to be from about 50 miles south of Tampico to 100 miles north of Tampico. Landfall should be between 48 and 60 hours from now. Regardless of development, this system will be only a rainfall threat, as the slow mover is capable of delivering heavy localized rains to portions of central America that could cause problems. If it comes far enough north, we may even be able to hope for some isolated bands of rain to come into extreme southern Texas.

We shall see what happens!

Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

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