THE XTREME WEATHER BRANDED GEAR IS HERE » and now available in OUR STORE! Get it now so you'll be ready for the first chase of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season! 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alberto - Beryl - Chris - Debby - Ernesto - Florence - Gordon - Helene - Isaac - Joyce - Kirk - Leslie - Michael - Nadine - Oscar - Patty - Rafael - Sandy - Tony - Valerie - William 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Andrea - Barry - Chantal - Dorian - Erin - Fernand - Gabrielle - Humberto - Ingrid - Jerry - Karen - Lorenzo - Melissa - Nestor - Olga - Pablo - Rebekah - Sebastien - Tanya - Van - Wendy 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Names »   Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred PLEASE REGISTER TO ACCESS ALL AREAS OF THIS SITE » ONCE REGISTERED CLICK ON XTREME WEATHER CAM TO INTERACT WITH OTHER MEMBERS IN OUR CHAT ROOM OR SEND A MESSAGE VIA OUR MESSAGING SYSTEM. TAKE A JOURNEY BACK THRU TIME IN OUR "INFAMOUS STORMS" SECTION. YOU CAN CREATE AND CUSTOMIZE YOUR OWN BLOG - POST ENTRIES FOR OTHERS TO COMMENT ON. TELL US YOUR WEATHER STORIES! » ONCE YOU'RE A REGISTERED USER, YOU CAN TELL US ALL ABOUT YOUR WEATHER EXPERIENCES IN "YOUR STORIES". WE LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING ALL ABOUT IT! 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES » ARLENE - BRET - CINDY - DON - EMILY - FRANKLIN - GERT - HARVEY - IRENE - JOSE - KATIA - LEE - MARIA - NATE - OPHELIA - PHILIPPE - RINA - SEAN - TAMMY - VINCE - WHITNEY 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names » Alex / Bonnie / Colin Danielle / Earl / Fiona Gaston / Hermine / Igor Julia / Karl / Lisa Matthew / Nicole / Otto Paula / Richard / Shary Tomas / Virginie / Walter FUTURE STORM NAMES
Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership...

You are not logged in.

Tropical Storm Arlene forms, will make landfall tomorrow morning

Posted by on in Weather
  • Font size: Larger Smaller
  • Hits: 1817
  • Print
  • PDF

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video. Please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in the video, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer.

Find us on Youtube Find us on Facebook

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season can be officially welcomed in, as Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the Bay of Campeche. She was upgraded yesterday, skipping TD status, a bit sooner than I thought, but she did get upgraded as expected. Arlene struggled with little convection through last night, but this morning has begun firing lots of deep convection around the center, and is starting to acquire the beginnings of a core structure. The recon is still finding a broad center with the wind maxima well-removed from the center. The low-level center also appears to be slightly displaced southwest of the mid-level center, showing a decoupling that may limit intensification in the near-term. The NHC brings Arlene up to 50kts (60mph) before landfall, which is certainly possible if the system can tighten up a little bit in the 18-24 hours it has before landfall. The recon shows the central pressure is down to 1000mb. The upcoming 10am CDT advisory may not upgrade the winds from 40mph based on recon data, but later today Arlene may be up to 50mph. The upper-level environment, as advertised, has become a lot more favorable for intensification since yesterday, although there is still a little bit of dry air to the northwest of the storm. The main issue with Arlene will be rainfall, as despite the fact that Mexico really needs the rain, too much of it too fast can still cause problems for folks. A 60mph tropical storm can also cause issues with wind along the coastline. Arlene will be coming into the Mexican coast just south of Tampico sometime tomorrow morning. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest advisory information for your area.

Elsewhere...The GFS, UKMET, and most of the other model sets are showing a strong MJO pulse remaining over the Atlantic through the next two weeks. The first 10 days of July are likely to remain active in the tropics, and we may have to watch for further opportunities for tropical development in either the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. A progressive pattern of upper ridges and lows marching east to west will provide pockets of favorable conditions for development, and we will be following these pockets as they travel across the basin. More to come on that after Arlene clears out.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 95L Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Invest 95L Model Tracks:

Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

Tagged in: tropical weather
Trackback URL for this blog entry.


Follow Us
  • Twitter: thextremewx
  • Facebook: pages/The-Xtreme-Weather/142875679093761
  • YouTube: thextremeweather
  • RSS Feed: The Xtreme Weather
  • Technorati: thextremeweather
Featured Bloggers

Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.

Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.

Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.
Poll Du Jour
Which hurricane was the worst?
Weather Underground RSS Feed for JeffMasters's Blog
  • 93L in Eastern Atlantic Growing More Organized
    An area of disturbed weather located near 10°N, 33°W at 8 am EDT Monday, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, was designated Invest 93L by NHC early Monday morning. This disturbance is a more serious threat than Tropical Depression Two of last week, and has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Visible satellite loops...
  • Disturbance off the Coast of Africa a Potential Threat to the Lesser Antilles
    An area of disturbed weather near 11°N, 31°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it heads west at 10 - 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the disturbance had only a minor amount of spin. Infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity...