| Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership... |
You are not logged in.
Tropical Storm Nicole still a serious threat to the Southeastern USA
Tropical Storm Nicole (which finally formed this morning) continues to move west of the models and NHC for now. The NNE movement makes much more sense based on the latest steering layers map shown below. Nicole isn't really THAT disorganized to me, got good structure, convection. The only thing, and it's a big thing that Nicole lacks is a well defined circulation.
What's interesting is that I see a circulation, small little vortex around the Keys.. Interesting,
My second and last run on Nicole, a bit different from the NHC track and most models. Why? The steering just doesn't favor this storm to move that far to the east. Yes, it'll miss Florida, but look at the steering map for 990-999 mlb.
Now if we had a CV Hurricane right now, it would track up the East Coast. That's how strong the high is. Steering favors a NNE track overall, no turn to the northeast directly, the ridge on that map blocks any deviation to the east after passing Florida. It would not even surprise me if she heads due north at times, but to be on the safe side, I keep her going NNE till she becomes Extratropical. Doesn't stop her from strengthening however. Winds should increase on the system during the day today. I expect to see winds of 20-25 mph. on the East Coast of Florida, 40-50 mph. for North Carolina. A landfall on the border of SC/NC.
Watch closely the southern end of the storm, this will contribute along with the remnants of Matthew and maybe those waves in the CATL to our next storm of the season. A very active season this year, as predicted.
14/7/5
Those numbers should continue to rise for about 2-3 months. La Nina likes to keep the season going till December at times. Have a good day.
Comments
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.-
Written on May 02 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 20 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 19 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 18 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 16 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for MexicoTropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough...
-
Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South CarolinaTropical Storm Alberto continues to move slowly to the west-southwest off the coast of South Carolina, and is bringing light rains to the coasts northern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Recent radar and satellite loops show that Alberto has weakened late this morning, and has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. Upper level winds out of the west-southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over...
