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Tropical Storm Nicole threatens the Southeastern USA.
While Nicole may not be Tropical for too long after exiting the Caribbean, she should continue to strengthen. There's some indications that the wind shear values may not be as high due to the front stalling and drifting north. Most will call this a Tropical Depression, but due to this...
AL162010092818BEST0212N829W351000TS
We will have Nicole by 5 p.m. today! This is pretty much what I figured would happen. Nicole is organizing, but very slow due to shear to it's northwest. This should keep her lopsided most of her life until she becomes fully Extratropical, then we will see a Noreaster with moisture returning to the western side.
As you can see Nicole is not the most impressive system, in fact, she looks extremely ragged. However, I won't be surprised to see her ramp up over night, as most systems in the Caribbean tend to do. Here is my first run on the storm, most like to call it REED Model Run.
I see Nicole strengthening to about 45-50 mph. before landfall in South Florida. I won't be surprised if she manages to get around 60 mph. Really depends how she does overnight tonight before hitting Cuba. The landmass should not effect the storm because of how disorganized it is. After striking Florida, she runs through the Gulf Stream. Now the key is on how strong the wind shear will be at this time to if she becomes an Extratropical Storm. Wind shear can help Extratropical systems strengthen, so even if she does become Extratropical, she will continue to become powerful. Folks on the Southeast Coastline will need to start preparations for Nicole now. Winds may be around 60-70 when it gets to the Carolinas, again depends on how everything turns out after striking Florida.
Comments
It's amazing with the look of the "Unnamed" TS that the NHC continues to not name it. It has banding, the center relocated where it's finally supposed to be, south of Cuba where the banding of deep convections at. It looks like a 40-45 mph. Storm right now. I just don't understand the criteria for naming these things anymore.
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Nice update Allan but unfortunately, Nicole never materialized. Do you think we may still see TD16 get the Nicole name? Strange happenings in the Caribbean. Usually if you see any kind of anything down in that region this time of year it blows up into a storm in a hurry ala Wilma, Mitch, etc. Have a good one...