| Donate $10 or more and receive an ad-free membership... |
You are not logged in.
Tropical Weather Synopsis - August 12, 2010
- Hits: 648
- 1 Comment
- Subscribe to updates
- Bookmark
Right now, the tropics are seemingly quiet. Tropical Depression Five is no more, as is Invest 93L. However, that does not mean that the tropics are lacking activity.
Tropical Depression Five was demoted yesterday to a remnant low by the National Hurricane Center primarily due to the broadness of the circulation and the lack of any formidable organization or threat to land. It is interesting to note that ex-TD 5’s circulation has closed up somewhat and it is a much better defined system than it was 24 hours ago. However, it does not meet the criteria for classification or, in this case, reclassifaction, as a tropical cyclone. If it had some more time over the bathlike 87-90 degree SSTs of the Gulf of Mexico, I would not be surprised to see some, if not significant, reintensification. However, 93L will be moving inland within the next 6-12 hours. Nonetheless, heavy rain and wind normally associated with a tropical depression will still impact the Louisiana Gulf Coast, and residents should be prepared for such.
Some computer models, namely the GFS, have been forecasting recurvature of ex-TD 5 due to a trough over the Central US. This would take it back into the Gulf and favor reintensification. I will keep one eye on what remains of this system to monitor this potential scenario.
It is also interesting to point out that the Cape Verde season appears to be heating up, and there is one long range entity in particular that I would like to address. There is a tropical wave over Central Africa that is already beginning to show some tropical characteristics. There is already ample convection and vorticity, and if this system was over water, it could very well be tagged by the NHC as a medium, or even high risk. The GFS takes this system out to the Atlantic and develops it into a very large, intense hurricane within the next two weeks. I believe that we should all keep a wary eye on this system. Cape Verde systems are known to be highly capricious, so I am uneasy about forecasting something like this.
I will have another update tomorrow morning.
-nyhurricaneboy
Comments
Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
Levi32 is a future star in the weather world that you may be familiar with from Weather Underground. His forecast and analysis are incredibly good.
TornadoDude is a member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose storm chasing career started with a bang in May 2010. Tune in for updates about severe weather / tornado outbeaks and storm chases.
Please CONTACT US if you'd like to be a featured blogger.-
Written on May 02 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 20 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Written on April 19 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 18 20120 comment(s) · Read More -
Written on April 16 20120 comment(s) · Read More
-
Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for MexicoTropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough...
-
Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South CarolinaTropical Storm Alberto continues to move slowly to the west-southwest off the coast of South Carolina, and is bringing light rains to the coasts northern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Recent radar and satellite loops show that Alberto has weakened late this morning, and has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. Upper level winds out of the west-southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over...
Where does it look like TD5 would go if it did re-enter the Gulf?
Cape Verde season is upon us so the last part of your entry isn't surprising...
Nice update! Thanks...