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Watching for Caribbean development this weekend and next week; heavy rain for C.A.
Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.
If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!
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The Atlantic is fairly quiet today. Most of the tropical action is out in the eastern Pacific where Jova just moved ashore and TD 12 just formed, but is also about to move inland. TD 12 is the main carrier of the monsoon circulation right now, and thus it will be a feature to watch over the coming days. The models have it meandering around but not really wanting to leave central America for the foreseeable future. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off a bit on development in the Caribbean, in favor of keeping low pressure tangled up with central America. While this may happen and cause a longer delay before an opportunity for development, the western Caribbean should still be monitored for possible migration of low pressure into the region this weekend and next week. Either way, central America is likely to receive copious amounts of rain over the next week or so as the monsoon circulation sits directly over them, and flooding could become an issue for those countries.
We shall see what happens!
Tropical Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):
Tags: tropical weather
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Stormchaser81 is a very talented member of the Xtreme Weather Team whose areas of expertise include Doppler radar, satellite interpretation, severe weather warnings, and tropical weather forecasting.
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